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Gay Marriage Headed for the Political Dustbin
It's not gay marriage that's soon to be forgotten, it's the political issue of gay marriage. A new survey shows that voters in California, narrowly approve of gay marriage.
The Field Poll result, released today, shows the highest level of support in more than three decades of polling Californians on the hot-button issue of same-sex marriage laws. The poll found 51 percent of registered voters favor the idea of allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed, while 42 percent disapprove.
51% approval may be a very slim margin, but it represents a sharp change in this issue over the last two decades. When the question was asked in 1995, it drew 30% support. In 1997, the number was up to 38%. Now it's 51%. And with the recent court ruling limiting efforts to restrict gay marriage in California to making a change in the state constitution, only 43% are in favor of such a change.
A number like 51% may make it appear that the change in this issue is tentative or temporary, but this issue has all the hallmarks of past civil rights issues. This is all about people feeling threatened because a minority insists on rights that the majority already holds. It's exactly the sort of issue that falls to progress, education, and acceptance -- especially as new generations not steeped in hatred of the other begin to take a stronger role in the political picture. That change is strongly reflected in the 21% movement in this poll over the last twenty years.
That's not to suggest that this struggle is over. Thirteen states passed "defense of marriage amendments" in 2004. The average vote in favor of the amendments was 70% in favor of the amendment, with only two states showing less than 60% support for an amendment blocking same-sex marriages.
Two years later, nine more states considered such amendments. In five of those states, the vote was less than 60% in favor of the amendment. In South Dakota an amendment passed by only a very slim margin, despite an extreme example of the conservative tactic in linking same-sex couples and group marriage. In Arizona such an amendment failed for the first time.
Counting progress by looking at narrow losses may seem like measuring health by how well you feel when you only have the flu instead of plague, but those numbers mark the same kind of trend that the polls in California reveal. Year by year, same-sex marriage is becoming a much less potent issue.
Within ten years, people will look back on the issue of gay marriage and wonder how it was ever a serious political issue. The issue then won't be how many states are being added to the roll of those restricting marriage, but whether the 27 states which already have some restriction will be flipped back one at a time, or whether a federal Freedom of Marriage Act will mend them at a stroke.
Oh, and all that's required between now and then is that people keeping working their hearts out for justice.
