Gallup.Com - State of the States: Political Party Affiliation

[furrbear]

The accompanying map shows party strength by state for 2008, ranging from states that can be considered solidly Democratic (a Democratic advantage in party identification of 10 percentage points or more) to those that can be considered solidly Republican (a Republican advantage in party identification of 10 percentage points or more). States in which the partisan advantage is less than 5 points in either direction are considered "competitive." (The full data for all states appear at the end of the article.)

...

Implications

The political landscape of the United States has clearly shifted in the Democratic direction, and in most states, a greater proportion of state residents identified as Democrats or said they leaned to the Democratic Party in 2008 than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

As recently as 2002, a majority of states were Republican in orientation. By 2005, movement in the Democratic direction was becoming apparent, and this continued in 2006. That dramatic turnaround is clearly an outgrowth of Americans' dissatisfaction with the way the Republicans (in particular, President George W. Bush) governed the country.

With Democratic support at the national level the highest in more than two decades and growing each of the last five years, Republican prospects for significant gains in power in the near term do not appear great. But the recent data do show that party support can change rather dramatically in a relatively short period of time.

Full Details.

Comments

[joebehrsandiego.livejournal.com]

Interesting. "Party affiliation" as defined here, seems to have nothing to do with voter party registration ... or, being registered to vote at all.

I guess that would at least partly explain why *every county* in "Democrat-Leaning" Oklahoma, voted for John McCain last November (for example).

I guess if one wants to use party "affiliation" as a complement/substitute for views on social policy, role of government, what have you, then this report has some use. But not much. One can "affiliate" with a party all one wants to, but the vote gives that party the power to actually do something.

Your thoughts?

Is simple.

[furrbear.livejournal.com]

It's polling data. People lie to pollsters. Yeah, not registrations - it was "identified with or leaned to the Democratic Party in 2008."

Dem-Rep gap of 6% for OK. Gimme a break. They polled OK more Democratic than TX and I know that's BS.

[gearjock.livejournal.com]

I have to question the statistical methodology of any analysis that lists Oklahoma as "leans Democratic"

I really, really do.

[furrbear.livejournal.com]

Not alone there.

[robearal.livejournal.com]

I really question the Deep South as being "Competitive." Outside of the cities and the "Black Belt", it is quite firmly Republican.